Climate Change, Food Security, and Population in Sub-Saharan Africa: Modeling the Linkages


Author(s): Moreland S, Smith E

Year: 2013

The International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses. 4(2):  29-47.

A computer simulation model was developed to help clarify the dynamic relationships between climate change, food security, and population growth. The aim was to develop a model that would be simple enough to adapt to a country and that could be used at the policy level to introduce population issues into the dialogue on adaptation to climate change in the context of food security. The resulting model links a population projection, a sophisticated economic model that takes account of the effects of climate change on agriculture, and a food requirements model that uses Food and Agricultural Organization formulas.

The model was tested and piloted in Ethiopia. The Ethiopia pilot demonstrated the usefulness of this model in quantifying the contribution of family planning in adapting to potential climate change-induced food security challenges.