HIV and Increases in Childhood Mortality in Kenya in the Late 1980s to the Mid-1990s
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Data from the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) show that the mortality rate of children under five increased by about 25% from the late 1980s to the mid-1990s. The factors responsible for this increase have been poorly understood and controversial. The objective of this 26-page document is to clarify the situation. Data from the 1993 and 1998 KDHSs have been analyzed and merged into a single data set. Additionally, socioeconomic and reproductive dynamic controls, as well as estimates of HIV prevalence in each Kenyan district, were included in the analysis. The results of this analysis strongly suggest that the HIV epidemic played a major role in the recent child-mortality increases in Kenya.