Review and Revise: A Tool for Reviewing and Revising Key Population Size Estimates

Author(s): MEASURE Evaluation

Year: 2018

Abstract:

Key populations—a term used to reference sex workers, men who have sex with men, transgender people, people who inject drugs, and prisoners—are at greater risk for acquiring HIV and are least likely to access services, including treatment. Understanding the size of key populations is important to ensure that resources are allocated to reach these populations with the services and treatment they require. Unfortunately, estimating the numbers of these often hidden and mobile populations who engage in illegal or stigmatized sexual behavior is difficult, with no gold standard method for providing consistently valid and precise estimates. Countries have invested resources in multiple methods to estimate the size of key populations in subnational areas and extrapolate findings to the country as a whole. Consequently, countries frequently have multiple and conflicting size estimates of key populations for subnational areas and for the entire country. Multiple estimates often cause confusion when program targets are set and resources are allocated based on projected need.

This tool was designed to help those engaged in program planning and target setting to understand why size estimates may differ and to make an informed judgment about which ones are most appropriate for use by their programs.

Specifically, it will help program planners (1) understand what population size estimates are needed, (2) identify currently available estimates, (3) understand the strengths and limitations of those estimates, and (4) reach a consensus on the most appropriate ones for the program to use. If currently available estimates are insufficient, the tool will help stakeholders understand how to revise them using existing data or (5) collect additional data to produce new estimates.

This tool has been tested in Guyana, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.